There are no solid reasons to holdback on life extension programmes. The population of developed countries is already at a decline and in a century, if longevity or fertility rate isn’t tackled the ramifications might be catastrophically.
Population growth is not a major concern, nowadays, as fertility rate is falling and families are living in nuclear families with an average of only two children. The mortality rate is above the fertility rate and the result of such controversy is declining population.
In 1960’s the real bubble of the population began. A revolutionary growth in human population was seen. Countries such as China were forced to control the birth rate through their one-child policy. In 2000 the world population was estimated to 6.1 billion with an annual growth of 77 million people, where six countries represent half of this growth figure;
- India 21 %
- China 12 %
- Pakistan 5 %
- Nigeria 4 %
- Bangladesh 4 %
- Indonesia 3 %
*Figures are on percentage of total growth (77 million) per estimated 2000.
The birth rate has fallen in China from 6 to 1.8 while in India from around 7 to 3.23. If this trend persists to year 2050, India’s population will surpass that of China. However, in the recent years, the fertility rate has inclined by 40 percent. It has dropped from an average of five children per women to 3.1 in developing countries and in developed countries to a range of 2.8 to 1.7. children per women.
The population growth is flattening across the world. The ramifications of declining population or depopulation can range from socio-economic to general quality of life. There are no such as an ideal population size yet published. According to the Census of Bureau “projections show this slowdown in population growth continuing into the foreseeable future,”
It makes perfectly sense why developing countries experienced a similar population boom to what the developed world did in the 60s. They are in a transition phase, where countries such as India and China are already reaching a growth stage where the population is increasing at a declining rate. It is a fact that as countries and people become wealthier there is a shift in perspective. Children earlier were previously considered as producers of goods and are now referred to as consumers of goods. Families prefer to have fewer children but to treat them well, offer proper education, health and quality of life.
The fall in fertility rate is thus accompanied by a decline in child mortality rate as well. This nurtures a more stable population growth. There still exist population problems in some countries. However, to solve the problem the focus should be on monitoring birth rate and not on increasing death rate.
Overpopulation is no longer a viable opposition against life extension. For instance, in countries such as India the population density is far less than in Netherland, Belgium or Japan. It is expected that the density of population will become less in Europe in the decades to come. The major contributor for this will be better education, healthy service, nutrition and environment.
Food supply will not be a serious problem, even if the population rises to 10 million. Advancement in technology makes it possible to supply 10 million people with food by using only half of what is used today. The agricultural production capacity per person has augmented with more 50 percent per person since 1960. The proportion of people starving has also fallen in 1949 from 45 percent to 18 percent in 2004 and the trend to perpetrating.
The picture is clear; the most idealized way to assure a stable population is to invest heavily in life extension research. The benefits just unfold from health, security to education and henceforth. Living long without worries gives us a wealthy and healthy world.
Further Reading: Longevity should Not Be Viewed as a Threat towards Overpopulation
References
1. Max More, Ph,D. (2004) The scientific conquest of Death, Imminst.org
2. Wikipedia: Population Decline
Mon, Feb 22, 2010
Gerontology, Health And Aging, Longevity