Latest News and Developments about Humankind's Drive Towards Biological Immortality

Aging might soon become treatable as any other illness. To unwind the intricate puzzle of the aging process substantial progress is still required. Yet, to reverse the aging process is an even more complex obstacle. Let’s not ignore facts: it appears unattainable considering that cure for cancer hasn’t yet been discovered despite the fact that billions of dollars have constantly been spent in the field for several decades.

Law of Accelerating Returns

Ray Kurzweil might sound like an optimist to many as he underlines the thought that progress in the field of light extension can ascend to light-speed. He calls it the “law of Accelerating Returns”. It depicts the exemplary rate that research is advancing and velocity cost of technology is shrinking. Thus, research advancement made nowadays represents 20, 000 years progress when compared to the 20th Century. Exponential increase in research is as much as one thousand times faster in the 21st Century.

However, according to Ray Kurzweil the ‘law of accelerating returns’ is deceptive in its pace of advancement. The fact that everything starts slowly and then it accelerates, produces two results: first the expectation for the future occurs less fast than predicted and thereafter it occurs faster.

Explaining Exponential Growth

To explain the theory of exponential growth, take the example of a process that starts with a single grain of sand and it is thereby doubled each consecutive day. In five days, the total is 32 (2, 4, 8, 16). After another five days, the total is 1024. Yet this is merely a teaspoon of sand. Then after 10 more days the total is over a million and after another 10 days, the total is up to 1.1 billion grains of sand. The speed keeps on increasing as the next day 2.2 billion and in another five days, around 53 billion grains of sand will be available.

To see the whole picture, it took five days to reach 32 grains of sand. After some days, 53 billion grains are added per day, which is still increasing at an exponential rate.

Creeping Normalcy

Research (knowledge and technology) is actually having a metaphorically similar effect. It is called a ‘creeping normalcy effect’ where the growth is hardly visible until it explodes to the surface. Taking a conventional example, the capacity of technology has per dollar increased two-fold after every year. Yet this rate is exponentially accelerating, implying that in 10 years technology might be 1000 times more powerful and in 25 five years a billion times more powerful. Remember, computer is a contemporary development which has become widespread only very recently in-line with internet post to 1990s.

Absorb the vision of how the future might be with the power of technology and knowledge as you take a retrospective snap view of past progress. What we know and use are all recent development. Only very few back to 19th century. In this frame of thinking, equipment and technology available will re-define science, considering doing aging research with apparatus having a capacity more than billion above those used today.

Framing Learning into Reality (Human Genome Project)

The expected 15 year Human Genome Project in 1990 was a paradox (impossible mission) similar to life-extension in 2010. In 1989, the most brilliant scientist (Ph.D student) equipped with the most sophisticated technology at the time, was only able to sequence 1/10,000 genomes. In the mid-phase of the project (7.5 years), around 1% of the human genomes had been sequenced.

Ordinary observers would say that to accomplish the project within 7.5 more years the speed of the research has to increase 100 times (1%*100). Scientifically, ‘the law of increasing returns’ would put it that if 1% is doubled every year, 100% will be reached within 7 years. Apparently, this occurred and it challenged predictions of many experts as the Human Genome Project was both accomplished ahead of time and with a lower budget. At the vertex of 7 years, accomplishment of the project seemed futile and impossible but eventually results foddered without precise reasons.

The researchers knew that 1% represented halfway accomplishment. Having the underlining assumption that progress will increase at an exponential rate enabled them to accomplished 99% of the Human Genome Project with the same amount of time it took to unveil 1% of it.

Progress in Biological Processes

The 25000 genes in each of our cell are similar to computer programs. Systematic simulation and modeling is used to decipher the genome code. Technology is also being used to program, de-construct and reprogram our biological mechanism similar to the way computer programs are updated. The key element is that as researchers are capable of modeling, simulating and reprogramming our biology; the “law of accelerating Returns” will make progress burst in just some years.

Pace of progress is becoming cheaper, more efficient and faster, recent turtle speed is replaced as the accelerating returns are seen. Life extension is becoming a plausible achievement just like tackling cancer and heart disease, which has been advancing very slowly in the past.

Power of Law of Accelerating Returns on Cost
Exponential growth accounts for deflation of technology equipment. For some examples, we can refer to

1. MIT, in 1965 was amidst the technological advanced Universities. They had only one computer at that time worth $11 million (inflated in today’s dollar). It was used by all the members of the faculty including students. Forty years later saw the creation of a more powerful computer, the cell phone, being a million time cheaper and smaller as well as thousand times more effective.

2. In April 2003 the Human Genome Project ended at total cost of around $3 billion. Just 4 years ahead, in May 2007 the cost had already dropped to $1 million (3000 times lesser) as Dr. James Watson’s genome was sequenced. Complete Genomics a new company, 2009 is claiming that they charge $5000 for sequencing the human genome.

Unraveling the Aging Puzzle

Many parts of the aging puzzle have been identified. The prime focus is to extend lifespan and thereon to reverse aging. In the long-term people can remain healthy and young. Some of pieces of the puzzle to unraveling the aging puzzle are:

1. Caloric Restriction
Firms are already trying to produce a drug that copies the caloric restriction benefits. Eventually caloric restriction is a proven method to increase the lifespan of several mammals.

2. “Telomere shortening or Maintenance”
Research is being carried out to produce possible products that can avoid telomere shortening. Telomeres are protective ends to chromosomes, and they are eventually shortened each time a cell divides. This process continues until the telomere becomes too short and the cell reaches a limit and dies ending life of the cell (the limit is technically called the hayflick limit).

3. Evolutionary Genomics
A company in California has successfully extended the life of animals by 300 percent in vitro. They have also found 300 genes associated with aging that are likely to correlate to human genes. The company is now trying to produce substance that can initiate these genes and ultimately extend human lifespan.

4. Aging Genes and Manipulation
Many firms and researching companies are discovering genes correlated with longevity, this might soon pay-off.

5. Immune System Modulation
The immune system has been analyzed by a company and they are saying that there might be a possibility to restore it to an earlier condition.

6. “Stem Cells”/ “Regenerative Medicine”
Stem cell research is taking an avenue in research interest. Stem cell therapies might soon be able to repair damaged cells and organs.

7. “Tissue Glycation” or Extracellular Aging
Stress can cause cross-linking in cells. Sugar, protein, fats and other things that are consumed can produce internal damage. Ways to rewind and to avoid cross-linking is in research.

8. “Mitochondrial Rejuvenation”/ (SENS)
It might be easier to repair damaged caused to various part of the body instead of preventing it from occurring. Mitochondrial provides chemical energy needed by cells and repairing it can alleviate various pathologies.

9. Dementia
Longevity makes us more prone to dementia. A company has already established a substance that halts the sequence of Parkinson as well as Alzheimer’s disease.

10. Nanomedicine
Nano-technology with nano-medicine will make it possible to repair tiny cells. Thereafter almost any cell and organ can be repaired in our body and thus restoring physiological health will be possible.

11. Genome Reengineering
In a cell there are approximately 25, 000 genes (computer programs). Knowledge of how to reprogram these genes is surfacing and this can make us more defiant to disease as well as aging.

Other forthcoming innovation is organ storage and artificial general intelligence. Organ and tissue storage will make it possible to safeguard young tissues that can be re-used later on. Artificial general intelligence is also an upcoming supplement to accompany the law of accelerating returns.

Our actual extension approaches through lifestyle and supplement can already prolong life with an average of 10 years.

Reference:Manhattan Beach Project

Anti Aging, Anti Aging Theories, Gerontology, Health And Aging, Immortality, Longevity